The Wall

Green Steel

Why Steel First

Steel is in everything CTMP builds: penstocks, turbines, TBMs, factories, ports, HVDC towers, housing. If steel is externally priced, every cost compounds.

Green Steel is the exemplar vertical. It shows how cheap energy transforms an entire industry.

The Arithmetic ?

Adjust inputs. Watch the economics cascade.

¢/kWh
MWh/t
$/t
% below
$/t
Mt
Mt
x: Energy cost per tonne
$0
y: Our sale price (20% below incumbent)
$0
Open market volume
0 Mt
Revenue (market sales)
$0
Gross profit
$0
Gross margin
0%
The insight: At $0.80/MWh, energy cost per tonne is just $X. Incumbents pay 10-20x more for energy. That delta cascades through everything.

Defensible internal cost model

This is the structure you can defend. Every argument collapses into ore, H2, electricity, consumables, labor, or fixed cost.

Csteel = Core + (H2kg/t × CH2) + (kWht × Ce) + Cconsumables + Clabor + Cfixed
$/t
kg/t
Planning anchor: 54 to 69 kg H2 per tonne DRI (plus heater fuel if included).
$/kg
kWh/t
Planning range: 3,000 to 4,000 kWh/t (includes electrolysis plus EAF and auxiliaries).
¢/kWh
Internal band: 0.08 to 0.2 ¢/kWh. Tariff basis: 2.5 ¢/kWh.
$/t
$/t
$/t
Illustrative anchor: $5B capex, r=3%, n=30 (CRF≈5.1%), fixed O&M≈3%/yr. At 20 Mt/y, fixed ≈ $20/t.
use proof total
Ore
$0
Hydrogen
$0
Electricity
$0
Consumables
$0
Labor + overhead
$0
Fixed
$0
Internal all-in cost (proof total)
$0
Tariff delta (3,300 kWh/t @ 2.5¢)
$0
What this proves: Under internal CTMP energy economics, electricity stops being the driver. The swing factors become ore/pellets, yield, utilization, and product mix.

Source anchors: MIDREX DFM (H2 consumption ~550 Nm3/t DRI), Midrex/DOE slides (~650 Nm3/t DRI ≈ 54 kg/t), US DOE electrolysis targets (system kWh/kg H2), Energy Transitions Commission (HHV/LHV framing), and EAF electricity benchmarks (order-of-magnitude).

Where Green Steel Goes

Penstocks & Liners Water conveyance
Turbine Casings Power generation
TBMs & Rails Tunnel boring
Factory Frames Manufacturing
HVDC Towers Power transmission
Port Infrastructure Logistics
Cranes & Handling Construction
Rebar Green concrete

Platform Integration ?

Green H2 Firing clean heat

High-temperature heat from green hydrogen. Energy basis anchored by baseload power.

Heat Recovery cascade

Steelmaking is heat-intensive. Capture and repurpose across adjacent processes: preheat, drying, curing.

SPE / SPV Governance ring-fenced

Green Steel operates as its own Special Purpose Entity with dedicated SPV governance. Sells externally while feeding internal demand.

Failure Mode cascades

If steel is delayed, externally priced, or captured: schedule slip and cost inflation propagate into every other vertical.

Contribute

Now that you understand the exemplar, submit improvements.

Design CapEx Circularity